This week we spread in the media that he returned to Argentina to export a large volume of soybean oil to China after more than a year, the fact is that the trade dispute with China is still far from resolved.

As expected, government officials tried to show trade transactions as successful efforts in negotiating Chancellery and the Ministry of Agriculture.

And with good reason: in May the Argentina again exported soybean oil to China for a total of 86,443 tons, according to data released by SENASA.

It was a remarkable recovery over the past four months, January and April, in which only 25,474 tons were shipped. Thus, in the first five months of product placements were 92,062 tons versus 106,050 in the same period in 2010 (-13%).

But it is necessary to clarify that from April 2010, China significantly slowed imports of Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for anti-dumping measures on Chinese products implemented by the Government.

In this context, Argentina's exports to all destinations in January-May of this year were 428,913 tons versus 398,830 in 2010 (+8%) due to increased placements made in Egypt, Venezuela and Colombia.

The background of the issue

The operaciñon materialized in recent weeks, they said to Online Policy to market sources, was the result of an agreement signed by Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez, in the framework of the negotiations held during the visit to the country conducted in May Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming.

On that occasion the official China Central Government undertook to import about 500,000 tons of Argentine soybean oil during the course of 2011. The thing is mysteriously sent Asian asked nothing in return.

So, if in May, Argentina exported about 86,443 tonnes, analysts predict that at this rate quota of 500,000 tonnes is exhausted in about four months and in October / November the situation back to its initial course.

The big question is whether China would buy after the quota is exhausted. While this question is almost impossible to answer (because the answer is known only to the Chinese), currently on the market some indicators to venture possible courses of action.

The truth is that China never clearly explained his reasons for not buying soybean oil to Argentina. At the time it launched two hypotheses: that was in retaliation for anti-dumping measures imposed by the Government to products from that country, or that part d Euna China's strategic decision to only buy grain to process the oil in their own plants.

According to the Institute for International Agricultural Negotiations, today our country has in place anti-dumping measures 36 (43% of total trade restriction measures implemented by the Government) against China.

Last year, when the conflict began oil, Argentina had 31 measures imposed against China. Products with thermoses have restricted access, bicycles, stoves, tiles, crockery, cutlery, air, footwear, textiles and tableware.

Another indicator that the trade situation with China is far from settled is what happens now with Brazil. While trade issues with the neighboring country stopped appearing in the media, this is because the two governments reached a non-aggression agreement until the completion of Argentine presidential elections. Perhaps with China has reached a similar understanding.

However, even if China decides to resume his refusal to buy Argentine soybean oil, this does not pose a serious situation for the country. This at least is the opinion of the market analyst and co-director of the consulting Novita, Henry Hedgehog.

"Argentina is the first exporter of soybean oil in the world (the other two major exporters of soybean oil are the U.S. and Brazil). Added between them do not reach 70% of exported by Argentina, which is price-maker, "he said.

"If China stopped buying soybean oil at the time, the stage would be normalized because the other countries come to buy here," ventured Erize